Transition Economics Maturity Model
The Goal of Transition Economics Maturity Modelling is to recognize countries and policy that maintain their economies in an empirically proven Advance Trending at the same time that they support Renewable Automation – see The RAI Renewable Automation Index.
“TE Mature” policies provide guaranteed income supports; and reset, renew or maintain spending-power – in housing, energy, healthcare and education. A summary chart of policy supports is listed below. Also see an introduction to Transition Economics here.
High-TE-Maturity countries present a statistically-significant, much lower rate of “collapse trending”, at just 5% to 10% versus 72% for all countries.
Transition Economics Maturity Levels
Maturity Models are standardized measuring charts that help direct the services offered by any leadership team within a topic industry. These models are commonly seen in Construction, Technology, and Transformation Project Management Offices and serve us well in Economics too.
Maturity Models often discuss five or six major steps, which are usually just a series of building-block projects that must be implemented in order to take a group – from Immaturity – as a reactive fire-fighting organization; to Maturity – a pro-active, professional, transparent and successful Economic engine.
Highest-level maturity countries have transcended their cost-center beginnings by offering policies and solutions that make them a sustainable profit generator and a strategic differentiator; a business-enabling force for their country.
What would a TE-Mature Transition Economy look like? Surely it would be running the strongest policies that their business cases and ongoing monitoring confirms are sustaining a healthy, advancing economy. GDP reports would confirm that citizens have strong incomes and renewed spending-power too; and more than this, the most mature countries will have the time, resources and best-practices to help other countries achieve TE-Maturity the same.
A TE-Immature Country will be using policy that is inappropriate for our current K-Wave Winter Economy. These Polices are proven to expand social problems, deepen financial collapse trendings, and even threaten lives via homelessness, suicides or revolution. We gentrify “Revolution” by calling it Populism in media today… and surely Trudeau, Brexit, Trump and Podemos (Spain’s two-year-old Anti-eviction Socialist Party that is sweeping to leadership) are examples …
JFK famously said: those that prevent peaceful revolution make violent revolution inevitable. Change is needed; but just as a car speeding toward a cliff is not assisted by accelerating, slowing nor stopping, there are good change decisions and bad ones.
And as scramble to figure this all out, more lives will be lost to homelessness as the cold of winter seasons approach and interest rates rise – and so too will risk of Global conflict arise without responsible change.
There is a very real urgency warranted for the correcting of Government Economic, Social and Business Policy globally today. To manage the rate of change responsibly, see the discussion of TE-Throttles and TE-Throttle Rates in Transition Economics books to understand that these changes can happen both quickly and safely as well.
By observing which policies that are proven to build advancing economies in 95% of countries that adopt them, #TEMature Policies spell-out a responsible rollout plan for change step-by-step.
Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz solved the timeless problem of how to determine Instantaneous Velocity by inventing Limits and Derivatives in Calculus. Leibniz went on to develop Differential and Integral Calculus as well, and both men could be easily regarded as giant contributors who made enormous advances in not only a new mathematics field, but also in physics, science, philosophy, and economics.
Calculus is an advanced field of mathematics, which is based on a very, very simple solution that allows us to calculate rise-over-run slope at point so small that there is no delta; at an instant.
Similarly, the measure of Aggregate Performance for the many policies deployed within one country’s economy, is suggested to be determined by TE-Maturity. We accomplish this measure by normalizing an arbitrary definition for Trending and then establish a baseline called “Collapse Trending”.
Consider that Transition Economics policies are driven and monitored by a business case empirically, measurably; this means that the many and varied ways of implementing any single policy are defined and can be controlled so that differences between one housing policy and another, for example, can be easily compared. If the policy aligns with TE Mature policy, we can assign a statistical value reliably like 1 or 0, “Yes” or “No”, Like or Not Like, etc.
Non-Binary weightings and percentages can also be used, especially in artificial intelligence and analytic “deep-dives”, but initially we want to prove that our method has value in simplest terms.
Each Country has eighteen policies as discussed here in this book initially. Countries with more TE Maturity-aligned policies, earn the assignment of a value greater than “1” – Immature Maturity. A more readable list of these policies is also in the Level 3 Maturity chart a few pages below.
The very detail-oriented among us will want to automate the assignment of maturity values as needed to build decision-support tools from models; and this will surely happen with TE Maturity Model adoption. Much can be learned about housing, and all other policies, from comparing collapsing and advancing groupings.
TE Maturity is not Calculus yet, but it is at the start of a wave of development as was when Newton and Leibniz began.
At this time there are just two countries that are deemed to be at a Level 3 and other maturing nations are Level 2. Maturity levels are defined in the next few pages.
Collapsing (C) – In K-Wave Winter (which is where we are today), when policies are not proven to create incomes AND are not targeting renewed spending power policies AND a trade deficit exists, countries can be said to be trending in a Collapsing direction.
If that country is also in Fiscal Deficit that exceeds a year of GDP Exports (Incomes), one can say something about the rate of collapse as well, but for now we will simply state that the economy is in a Collapsing Trend.
Advancing (A) – A country’s economy is said to be advancing if its Trade Balance is in Surplus (GDP Exports minus GDP Imports GT 0) and is greater than 5% of GDP Exports. Get online at Wikipedia to find lists of GDP Imports and Exports listed for every country annually.
Growth of GDP alone is not considered an indicator of an advancing economy. Although the number is easily track-able, GDP cannot be easily correlated back to our ultimate goal of creating a sustainable Good Life. An increasing-GDP country with high levels of inequity could as easily be said to be headed for high social-problem spending and could be unsustainable or even unstable and moving toward revolution. Not to say that this is happening; rather simply GDP in itself tells us little.
GDP Export per Capita, alternatively, often shows a correlation with the GINI wealth distribution Index and with the United Nations HDI – Human Development Index, which are qualitative measures of the lives of citizens as well.
By summarizing a list of 160 countries in this way (see the Charts below), we can make a number of important conclusions.
First, we can determine what percentage of countries have Collapsing or Advancing trendings.
Changing the definition of “Collapse Trending” will change the resulting value but by drawing a best-effort line in the sand, we build a basis to start with. Recall that our goal here is find which combination of policies lead to reliably Advancing Economies.
Second, now that we know that some number (72%) of all nations measured are in “Collapse Trending”, with this baseline number we can determine was our assumption about higher-TE-Maturity nations correct.
If our TE-Maturity Policy assumptions are correct, we should expect to see that a smaller percentage of TE Maturing countries are in a Collapse Trending; and if we are incorrect, we should see that our TE Maturing countries have similar or worse Collapse Trendings.
On reviewing our simple initial list, just one or perhaps two of the twenty TE-Maturing nations (Nations with a TE-Maturity of 2, 3, 4 or 5), exhibit “Collapse Trending” initially. By this comparison, TE-Maturing countries show collapse rates from 5% to 10% compared-to much higher rates for G8 (50%), G20 (47%), and 72% Collapse Trendings for all countries.
Many adjustments can be made in policies and data collection accuracy is important too. Fine-tuning and optimizing country policies until the best economic and social results are measured is the point and value of the exercise. At the end of the day, a TE Maturity validity check permits countries to make policy decisions that arrive at a predictable, measurably sustainable, and economically advancing society. See the #TEMature Policy line maintaining a late Spring-level of prosperity sustained throughout capitalism’s normal 60-year cycle in the following chart. This is the goal of Transition Economics.
Which countries are trending towards Collapse today? In the G8 – Canada, France, United Kingdom and United States; G20 nations also include Australia, India, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey.
Let’s consider the TE-Maturity Levels definitions next.
Immature – Indicates that a country has insufficient Transition Economic Policies & Programs to support incomes, nor return spending-power, nor support of automation and automation-driven job-losses. A look at the Trending chart below shows what you might expect within our Current Global Depression; correcting these trends takes policies with GDP-proven results.
The initial Maturity Model table for Transition Economics places a small handful of countries at Level 3 and Level 2 with the lion share of countries following in Level 1 – Immature status. Click here for the Detail Transition Economics Maturity Model Table.
Countries that adopt Transition Economics policy avert collapse trending a statistically-significant percentage of the time – based on these initial research findings. TE Maturing nations have a 5% to 10% Collapse Trending rate versus the 72% international rates discussed below.
Often we see that more mature Transition Economics countries are also high on The CMI Good Country Management Performance Index as well.
Level 2 = Right Plan of #TEMature Policies
If you think of an economy as a 10-cylinder combustion engine, the Labour Force makes up 40 to 50% of the population in most G7 countries – so 4 or 5 cylinders are working. Retirees are 20% of most countries but not all retired people have sufficient incomes in retirement to contribute to the economy. That’s a motor with 5 to 6 cylinders of pulling power at best. Giving unemployed and non-working persons incomes – you now have 7 cylinders.
After a little time, Automations and education spending increase the productivity and revenues from all economic “cylinders” as well. China is fortunate to be able to buy federal debt because these revenues become yet another cylinder for their economy. Finally, Renewable Automations create yet another injector by producing monetizable goods that are also desirable exports or imports that we no longer rely upon.
This cylinder-view explains the reason why TE-Mature, and also socialistic, nations are maintaining Good Lives today – because more economic production from 100% of citizens – plus renewable automation – equals consistent economic strength as a whole. The rest of TE-Mature Country success comes from policies that protect them from Off-shored Engineering, foreign ownership, housing bubbles, and other cost-of-living drains – so that spending-power is maintained and not syphoned away from the majority of citizenry.
- Support and Planning for Pilot Renewable Automations – similar to the 250 #WPProjects in Energy, Housing, Food, Clean Water & Transportation
- Engineering Safety Nets and the Reshoring of Engineering
- CSR – Corporate Social Responsibility training and Civics classes for our young soon-to-be-voters.
Right Plans ensure that Economies are sustained – so that a Reset won’t be a requirement next of our next cycle – and Worthwhile Projects and Policy Changes are met consistently with proven process, simple repeatable steps, the Right People, Clear Directions and Great Vision.
Level 3 = Sustain
The Projects needed to achieve this next level of maturity include Transition Economics training, Reversal of Housing Bubbles, Immigration Policy, and advances in Renewable Automation Programs.
Sustain-level countries formalize their reporting and project management processes so that change can happen reliably, scalably, and flexibly using SUSTAIN Project Management Method.
This example Voting Chart is a summary list of TE Policies proven to create profitable Social Program Business Cases and economic results. To create a Voting Chart for your own country, simply replace Political Parties along the top of the chart and fill it in per the policies of each group running election-by-election. Elections for Housing are typically Regional; Energy Policy is often governed by State or Province; Tax Avoidance, Exports & Immigration are Federal Policy.
Level 4 = Mature
A Mature Transition Economics Country is actively monitoring and Release Controlling improvements to its automated infrastructure. If the United Nations and member countries adopted these projects tomorrow, this could be live within as little as five years.
This impact on equality and human rights would be tremendous greater than U.N. Global Goals and this timing would be perhaps eight years sooner than Global Goals 2030 target as well.
Level 5 = Global Transition
These are the Strategic Differentiators and Game Changing Countries that build their local needs and then carry on to assist Global teams with consulting, thought leadership and best practice.
With a Good Life well on its way to being rolled out locally, Level 5 countries can now contribute to ensuring that these solutions are rolled out and running well with partners and global communities as needed. Our sustainable automations were designed to scale to this level quickly, and by now we are at release 2.0 and release 3.0 levels of technology maturity so that systems are reliable, renewable, and even elegant.
All aforementioned Maturity measures are scored on the chart for every country based on the 16 policy areas listed above; Healthcare, Guaranteed Incomes, and the other policy measures as discussed in the chapters that follow. At present, maturity levels are evaluated one country at a time and each country can request an assessment of how close or distant are they to their next maturity milestone.
As mentioned above, Right Plans are suggested to detail the projects needed to advance one’s policies and country through these five levels of maturity. The transparency of this process will improve so that anyone has the ability to grade their own country more fairly than we have graded them here in isolated research.
The v1.0 initial list follows. Countries are welcome to update their data on this list by sending an email to email@example.com.
Policies that support Transition Economics Maturity, also support Renewable Automation. The two lists – “”RAI Country” and “TE Maturity” are combined for this reason.
What to look for when setting TE-Mature Policy and Throttle Rates
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