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    Immigration neither Essential nor a Necessity

    This article is a excerpt, released ahead of schedule by CSQ Research, from the soon to be released book Transition Economics by prodigious author and Transition Economist, Edward Tilley. Its early release was prompted by a publication in the Toronto Star by The Conference Board of Canada announcing that “Higher Immigration can increase the growth of Canada’s Labour Force” – in a report which called for Immigration to increase by one-third to 400,000 per year.

    CSQ Research is a Canadian Think-tank that studies the policies of every country over time – and compares the track record of those policies to that country’s GDP track record. CSQ’s CMI – Country Management Index and Transition Economics Maturity Model, measure the management team performance of every country by assigning a performance and maturity rating to each.


    Canada boasts the G8’s largest Immigration percentage increase – adding one-fifth, or six-million immigrants, to its population since 1990. The next G8 was Germany and Spain at 15%.

    Country # of Immigrants % World % Country G8 or G20 Collapse Trending
    Saudi Arabia 9,060,433 3.9 31.4 20 Advance
    Australia 6,763,663 2.8 27.7 20 Collapse
    Canada 7,284,069 3.1 20.7 8 Collapse
    Germany 12,005,690 4.9 14.9 8 Advance
    U.S.A. 46,627,102 19.8 14.3 8 Collapse
    Spain 5,852,953 2.8 14 8 Collapse
    France 7,784,418 3.1 11.1 8 Collapse
    Italy 5,788,875 2 8 8 Advance
    Russia 11,643,276 4.8 7.7 8 Advance
    Turkey 4,580,678 2.1 5.81 20 Collapse
    South Africa 2,399,238 1 4.6 20 Collapse
    Argentina 1,885,678 0.8 4.6 20 Advance
    South Korea 1,230,000 0.5 2.9 20 Advance
    Japan 2,437,169 1.1 1.9 8 Advance
    Brazil 1,847,274 0.8 0.9 20 Advance
    Mexico 1,103,460 0.5 0.9 20 Collapse
    India 5,338,486 2.3 0.4 20 Collapse
    China 848,511 0.4 0.1 20 Advance
    Indonesia 295,433 0.2 0.1 20 Advance

    Immigration is not proven to improve Economic Growth in most large countries – nor in Canada.

    According to Canada’s GDP stats of exports; Canada’s exports are down 50% since 2000, imports are up 50% since 1990’s “250,000 Annual New Immigrant” Policy began. Record high trade deficits hit just last month at $3 billion after annual trade deficits every year since 2008. Canada’s track-record in affordable housing is one of run-away housing bubbles, poor infrastructure improvement, and its GINI is increasing throughout this time period. GINI is a measure of Inequity that indicates increasing wealth of richer individuals; this is generally seen to have a negative impact on Export per Capita and the economy at large.

    Worse off is Australia who is in a worse situation in all areas of its economy, with a similar number of immigrants but a lower over-all country population which makes this immigrant percentage higher than Canada’s.

    Across the G20 chart above, High Immigration countries show negative economic track records, while low immigration countries are largely among the strongest economic improvers. If I draw a line at 10% Immigration rates for the G20 nations above, 75% of G20 countries (with higher immigration than 10%) are in Collapse while 33% are in Collapse Trending with Low Immigration. See Transition Economics Maturity for an explanation of Collapse Trending.

    With Canada’s unemployment rates at 7% – and unreported unemployment at twice that, Canada’s labour force struggles to find placement into jobs and incomes for its citizens today. Housing in major hiring centers is at 13-times inflation since 1987 due to an absence of responsible management controls as well. Usury is rife as desperate families are forced into purchasing loans that they will seldom be able to repay.


    “Usury” is the practice of extending loans that can never be repaid; the practice is illegal in most countries – and most social leaders would agree that these are immoral practices as well. Our dictionaries have altered Usury definitions to focus on unreasonably high interest rates only, but when essential housing costs within bubbles are 13-times the rate of inflation and inventories (supply) are kept artificially scarce ongoing, Usury can happen at interest rates of just 2%. The Canadian Mortgage Insurance people at CMHC have very recently started to realize this problem and just this week raised requirements insufficiently in response. Inviting immigrants to settle in these areas – as they have preferred, exaggerates these scarcities and bubbles.

    In the chart above, the Toronto Real-Estate bubble in Red is compared to the housing prices in non-bubble markets and the Inflation line over the same 65-year period (over the last economic K-Wave cycle).

    Having lived through this time in Canada’s history as well, I – like many – can attest to the dilution of the Canadian’s standard of living throughout this period.

    At #100 on the The CMI Index, Canada is a Country on a trajectory for Collapse – and not success – based on its poorly researched management decisions in energy, immigration, wealth distribution and due to its general declines in citizen spending-power which have resulted from a long list of lax monitoring and poor government control.

    The hard evidence reinforces that there can be no business case for Immigration in Canada now, other than normal family unifications. Increasing Immigration rates amounts to compounding yet another “problem policy” at a time when this country can hardly afford another burden to infrastructure and to its automating and offshoring job market. Without Guaranteed Income protections and responsible controls in many areas, Canada can Collapse no different than Spain, Greece, England or any other.


    Reports citing statistics on birthrates are often presented inaccurately too; birthrates are proven to be lower in depressed economies (Fall and Winter Economies); and higher – almost double – in good times (Spring and Summer Economies). Economically depressed housing-bubble families cannot start having babies until they are in their 30s and 40s as well.

    In good economies, couples have more kids and start families in their very early 20s; which results in grandkids, great-grand-kids and an exponential growth in population.

    Improving lives for young families is the sustainable solution to today’s population decreases because, unlike immigration, improving the lives of citizens is a proven success formulas for economic growth. Growth can only be accomplished by eliminating bubbles in housing, synchronizing immigration with times of very low unemployment (<3%) or for specific cities where population is desired, free university, free daycare, and other family-building policy that has proven successful by other countries. GDP stats internationally prove that these family-building policy are GDP builders – if I point to the Netherlands or Ireland for just two examples of many.

    Impacts to the Culture of Canadians that we once held as a proud example to the world, is a consideration here as well but this intangible does not enter into this analysis. Based on the economic business case alone, it is time to reverse Canada’s proven-failed Immigration Policies and to make Canada a family-centric country once again.

    Steel yourself to immigration policy discussions that protect culture because these include topics such as intermarriage, immigrant percentage maximums in communities, and topics that would make a staunch liberal squeamish. The alternative, however, is to squander or blend your culture, so these discussions are important to have openly and honestly.

    Culture is a very important component of every country; economies are influenced by a broad number of discussions too; Transition Economics applies both scientific method and statistics to correcting the problems in our cyclic economies so that we make the correct policy decisions at the appropriate time.

    Look for Transition Economics at Amazon November 2016



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