WAOH World at our Hands Econometric Library

The World’s Largest Context-Driven Online Econometric Library

Aggregates

Transition Economics (TE) Indexes

Method 10:  Aggregation – Indexed Indicators

Transition Economics permits Proofs (TEP Charts) using indices created by combining multiple measures, similar to the S&P 500 Index. MEMS typically curates s a list of 50,000 aggregates that create causal Indexes and 20,000 are reported here below on WAOH.

An econometrics library of Indexed indicators must align very closely to the conventions explained in our USE CASE and Terms for Monetary Systems. Some care has gone into ensuring that terms are disambiguated, with one meaning and not multiple ambiguous meanings; so as to avoid proofs for weaponizable ambiguities like Socialism, Liberalism, Capitalism, and similar ideologies

  • Note: “Indicators” are individual measures of either economic or social performance – GDP, Suicide Rates, Longevity, etc. World Bank catalogs 1500 indicators, OECD keeps hundreds more, and the WAOH Econometrics Library consolidates dozens of cited data sources in total. All charts are cited either here on the webpage, in csq1.org/SSP theses, or in MEMS Data Science tools

The Social Contract and Social Contract Product (SCP) TEPs below, measure a mix of indicators selected from thirteen social problems and measures suggested by Professor Wilkenson’s University of Edinburgh team in their 2013 study of Social Contract measures. Their TED Chart summarized statistics collected by every nation for suicide rates, divorce rates, longevity, poverty, trust, obesity, teenage births, mental illness, addiction, math & literacy, social mobility, and imprisonment. See those Charts here When combined, they create an index and the following TEPs:

Social Contracts are improved by abundance in food, shelter, incomes, security, healthcare, education, etc. Each year, the Social Contract TEP Chart is an unweighted measure of the most economically beneficial social measures. In 2019, it used:


Social Contract

=


Education

+


Income Inequity

Longevity

Suicide

Poverty

The SCP Report (Social Contract Product), is a sometimes-weighted measure that adds the most beneficial financial measures to the Social Contract measure explained above:


The SCP Report

=


Export per Capita

Trade Balance

Debt

+


Social Contract

Consistent with Professor Wilkenson’s team findings, TEPs confirm empirically that countries with low social problems have high Social Contracts AND Advancing Economies 100% of the time. AND, these facts prove that Social Contract is a causal indicator as well.  Social Contract Product includes economic measures like export-per-capita and positive trade balances. A list of many Causal reports are grouped on the left-most tab here in the WAOH library When Indexes compare the results of numerous indicators, we must normalize each value by its Rank, Mean (-1 to 1), or Min/Max (0 to 1). Because many of our indexes use positive and negative values, we recommend Mean averaging – but MEMS permits users to choose any of these three normalization methods as they prefer. The ability to choose can make for some interesting but minor index shifts – so the lesson learned here is to never be too worried about which country placed first or second. Top-5 and Top-10 rankings are equally impressive in a field of 220 nations The first 2019 SCP Report did not have access to the “World at our Hands Report” library – and still, it predicts advancing economies better than any of the United Nations HDI and Happiness Reports. For 2020, The SCP Report will be guided by MEMS, the most sophisticated econometric data science tool yet for TE, so 2020 should create the most statistically causal Indexes possible.

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